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THE 2024 OSCARS: Predictions, Preferences & Winners

Writer's picture: Jordan James ChristopherJordan James Christopher

Updated: Apr 11, 2024

THE 2024 ACADEMY AWARDS

10 March 2024

Hosted by Jimmy Kimmel


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LEGEND

MOVIE // Filmmaker - Preferred Winner 

MOVIE // Filmmaker - Predicted Winner 🟡

MOVIE // Filmmaker - Award Winner


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ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  • BRADLEY COOPER // Maestro 🟡

  • COLMAN DOMINGO // Rustin

  • PAUL GIAMATTI // The Holdovers

  • CILLIAN MURPHY // Oppenheimer 

  • JEFFREY WRIGHT // American Fiction


This was a highly competitive category this year. Murphy, Cooper, and Domingo offered outsanding performances that carried their respective films. Murphy and Cooper stood just a few inches taller than the rest, for the length and depth of their performances to portray men across a lifespan. As much as I favor Oppenheimer, Cooper’s acting was more challenging and awe-inspiring. The mannerisms, the voice… maintaining a consistent yet dynamic character throughout his life, especially under the hairstyling and makeup… all displayed truly incredible skill as an actor. While he deserved the nomination, I congratulate Murphy on his win as the first Irish actor to win Best Actor.


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • STERLING K. BROWN // American Fiction

  • ROBERT DE NIRO // Killers of the Flower Moon

  • ROBERT DOWNEY JR. // Oppenheimer 🟡

  • RYAN GOSLING // Barbie

  • MARK RUFFALO // Poor Things

The winner for Supporting Actor was always a hands-down decision from the minute the nominees were announced. No question. Downey’s performance eclipsed his fellow nominees in every way. Ruffalo’s acting, though not poor, might have been difficult, but it didn’t stand out in the film. It was difficult too for Gosling, and while he did stand out as a crucial role in Barbie and offer an awesome performance, it wasn’t quite Oscar-worthy. I am glad he was nominated though, for the sake of representing the film in its lack of presence in other categories. I’ve said enough about Killers of the Flower Moon… and I have no idea why Sterling K. Brown was on this list. 


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

  • ANNETTE BENING // Nyad 

  • LILY GLADSTONE // Killers of the Flower Moon

  • SANDRA HÜLLER // Anatomy of a Fall

  • CAREY MULLIGAN // Maestro 

  • EMMA STONE // Poor Things 🟡


Leading Actress was decently competitive as well. Bening pushed the limits. Gladstone shined in her debut but had a poorly-written character. Hüller stood strong. Mulligan killed it. And while the film had some issues, Stone played so well (my favorite actress, so I’m biased). I was hoping to see Bening receive the Oscar for her role, a classic overcoming athlete, but I applaud Stone for her work and her win.


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • EMILY BLUNT // Oppenheimer 

  • DANIELLE BROOKS // The Color Purple

  • AMERICA FERRERA // Barbie 🟡

  • JODIE FOSTER // Nyad

  • DA'VINE JOY RANDOLPH // The Holdovers


As a fan of Blunt’s (yes, another favorite), I was hoping to see her win Supporting Actress. She also gave a stunning performance of Kitty. Oppenheimer was almost just as much about her as it was about Robert J. Oppenheimer, and we saw that in the script and through her eyes. Brooks was emotional in The Color Purple, but did not have much screen time… I suppose that makes her nomination all the more poignant… Foster was great in Nyad, but didn’t strike as award-winning, and let’s face it - Ferrera was only nominated for her monologue scene from Barbie. That leaves Randolph, who was the quiet but strong woman on the sidelines of The Holdovers grounding the entire film


ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

  • THE BOY AND THE HERON // Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki 🟡

  • ELEMENTAL // Peter Sohn and Denise Ream

  • NIMONA // Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary

  • ROBOT DREAMS // Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz

  • SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE // Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal 


this was the most disappointing moment of the night… I cannot believe the Spider-Verse was robbed of its Oscar win. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse won Best Animated Film in 2018, and this would have established a winning streak. When I heard about The Boy and The Heron, I knew it would beat out the Spider-Verse. If Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse were released just one year earlier or later, it would have won. Nimona’s nomination is a joke. I didn’t see Robot Dreams either, but based on its animation style, it didn’t deserve a win. It’s good to see Pixar still in this category; they need to just maintain their faithfulness to film and it will be smooth sailing for them. I can only hope that the upcoming Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse film will receive the Academy Award I already know it deserves.


CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • EL CONDE // Edward Lachman

  • KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON // Rodrigo Prieto

  • MAESTRO // Matthew Libatique 

  • OPPENHEIMER // Hoyte van Hoytema 🟡

  • POOR THINGS // Robbie Ryan


While Maestro and Poor Things posed some real competition for Oppenheimer in cinematography, it was always going to be Nolan’s film. Hoytema’s work was just… astonishing. 


COSTUME DESIGN

  • BARBIE // Jacqueline Durran 🟡

  • KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON // Jacqueline West

  • NAPOLEON // Janty Yates and Dave Crossman

  • OPPENHEIMER // Ellen Mirojnick

  • POOR THINGS // Holly Waddington


Undoubtedly, this Oscar should have gone straight to Barbie. The costuming is what made this film visually. It came to the designers to bring hundreds of Barbie doll outfits from decades of toy design to life on the screen. No pressure. In some way, one could argue that they had their work cut out for them, but it showed true costuming skill to dress each character, in each scene, just right to create the world of Barbie. The overall design of Poor Things also presented some real challenges, but the costuming did not stand out as a shining moment of the film as it did for Barbie.


DIRECTING

  • ANATOMY OF A FALL // Justine Triet

  • KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON // Martin Scorsese

  • OPPENHEIMER // Christopher Nolan 🟡

  • POOR THINGS // Yorgos Lanthimos

  • THE ZONE OF INTEREST // Jonathan Glazer


Once again… it was always going to be Nolan. And again… my absolute favorite. Seriously though, to pull together all of the skill and craftsmanship, to take that kind of vision from page to screen and finished product… what an accomplishment. It’s also a symbol of his whole body of work, from Following to Tenet. This director/producer/writer deserves to be recognized with a win… and a knighting from the King of England apparently! 


CONGRATULATIONS SIR CHRISTOPHER NOLAN.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR STELLAR CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE FILM INDUSTRY.


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

  • BOBI WINE: THE PEOPLE'S PRESIDENT

  • THE ETERNAL MEMORY

  • FOUR DAUGHTERS

  • TO KILL A TIGER

  • 20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL 🟡


The others didn’t even stand a slight chance… if 20 Days in Mariupol didn’t win, there would have been an actual riot. One of the most powerful documentaries of all time.


DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

  • THE ABCS OF BOOK BANNING

  • THE BARBER OF LITTLE ROCK

  • ISLAND IN BETWEEN 

  • THE LAST REPAIR SHOP

  • NǍI NAI & WÀI PÓ


This was a tough one, as all of the nominees were middle-ground. The Last Repair Shop’s win was fair though. It was a beautiful short-doc, and being about the repair of musical instruments, it was beautifully scored as well. This was my first time watching the Oscar-nominated short doc films, which was super exciting to me, so I’m looking forward to next year’s nominees!


FILM EDITING

  • ANATOMY OF A FALL // Laurent Sénéchal

  • THE HOLDOVERS // Kevin Tent

  • KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON // Thelma Schoonmaker

  • OPPENHEIMER // Jennifer Lame 🟡

  • POOR THINGS // Yorgos Mavropsaridis


Fantastic editing work in Oppenheimer. Again, no surprise for its win. This is probably the filmmaking category I know the least about, so I’ll be learning more about that over the next year to be able to better assess the nominees next year.


INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

  • IO CAPITANO // Italy

  • PERFECT DAYS // Japan

  • SOCIETY OF THE SNOW // Spain 

  • THE TEACHERS' LOUNGE // Germany

  • THE ZONE OF INTEREST // United Kingdom 🟡


This one made me mad. The Zone of Interest was… fine… some great filmmaking, but its candle was snuffed in the blazing wildfire of Society of the Snow. A superior film in countless ways, Society of the Snow stands as a beacon among films across the world. I am so disappointed this film was not submitted and recognized for more categories and awards here in the States. It won Best International Feature Film in my book. 


MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

  • GOLDA // Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly//Blue

  • MAESTRO // Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy//Bell 🟡

  • OPPENHEIMER // Luisa Abel 

  • POOR THINGS // Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston

  • SOCIETY OF THE SNOW // Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé 


Once again, Society of the Snow deserved to win. Golda and Maestro showed off some pretty cool special effects and aging makeup. And Oppenheimer and Poor Things did some great work… but the gradual transformation of an entire cast through a plane crash, dehydration, starvation, sunburn, and cannibalism showed genuine expertise that should have earned this team and Oscar. Again, a winner in my book. 


MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

  • AMERICAN FICTION // Laura Karpman

  • INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY // John Williams

  • KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON // Robbie Robertson

  • OPPENHEIMER // Ludwig Göransson 🟡

  • POOR THINGS // Jerskin Fendrix


Perhaps the HARDEST DECISION for the entire night! Wow! First of all, not sure why Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was nominated… it wasn’t anything special. The score for Poor Things is strange and discordant, a perfect match for the film, but a terrible listening experience. Barbie’s score is just… exceptional; it’s a heavy shame that it was not eligible for a nomination. It should have taken the place of Poor Things on this list. On to the real contenders… American Fiction is jazzy! It’s a fun listen, but also extremely fitting for the style of the film. Killers of the Flower Moon is the surprise competitor here - addicting to listen to. I had it on repeat for a week. Excellent work, and deserved posthumous nomination for Robbie Robertson. And finally, Göransson’s phenomenal score for Oppenheimer. A close race, but Oppenheimer sweeps the category again. 


MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

  • THE FIRE INSIDE // from Flamin' Hot; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

  • I'M JUST KEN // from Barbie; Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt 🟡

  • IT NEVER WENT AWAY // from American Symphony; Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson

  • WAHZHAZHE (A SONG FOR MY PEOPLE) // from Killers of the Flower Moon; Music and Lyric by Scott George

  • WHAT WAS I MADE FOR? // from Barbie; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell


Some disappointing nominees… a rough category this year. The Fire Inside and It Never Went Away are blandly mediocre. The songs from Barbie are great, but frustrating as they represent the only real attention that Barbie gets for the evening. The closing scene from Killers of the Flower Moon is a performance of Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) by a group of modern Native Americans from the Osage tribe, so it’s groundbreaking for them to be nominated for this song and to then be invited to perform it on stage at the Oscars. Elish’s song, What Was I Made For, remains the winner. Though lacking some dynamism, it’s a great song; the perfect closing number for Barbie


PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • BARBIE 

// Production Design: Sarah Greenwood

// Set Decoration: Katie Spencer

  • KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

// Production Design: Jack Fisk

// Set Decoration: Adam Willis

  • NAPOLEON

// Production Design: Arthur Max

// Set Decoration: Elli Griff

  • OPPENHEIMER

// Production Design: Ruth De Jong

// Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman

  • POOR THINGS 🟡

// Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath

// Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek


Similar to the Costume Design category, Poor Things commits thievery of Barbie’s win for Production Design. Hyperbole aside… Poor Things had a stunning design, with dynamic sets and locations, each unique and visually engaging. Barbie envisioned Barbieland from inspiration from decades of toy design, and while its ‘real world’ scenes were maybe ‘generic’, the resolution scene in ethereal space was… awe-inspiring. 


ANIMATED SHORT FILM

  • LETTER TO A PIG // Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter

  • NINETY-FIVE SENSES // Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess

  • OUR UNIFORM // Yegane Moghaddam

  • PACHYDERME // Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius

  • WAR IS OVER! INSPIRED BY THE MUSIC OF JOHN & YOKO // Dave Mullins and Brad Booker 🟡


This was also the first time I was able to watch all of the animated short films! They were diverse and highly thought-provoking. Great work from a variety of filmmakers. War Is Over! definitely deserved the win for artistic animation style, storytelling with a silent script, and not shying away from the gravity of war. As far as animation style, Letter To A Pig was quite remarkable and could have easily won the Oscar. 


LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

  • THE AFTER // Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham

  • INVINCIBLE // Vincent René//Lortie and Samuel Caron

  • KNIGHT OF FORTUNE // Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk

  • RED, WHITE AND BLUE // Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane 🟡

  • THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR // Wes Anderson and Steven Rales


This was also the first time I was able to watch all of the live-action short films! Again, diverse as a whole and many of them brought such a heavy message for being so short. Knight of Fortune was tender - also my first Swedish film. The After was a rough few minutes. Invincible was tragic and disheartening. Red, White and Blue was shocking. All were good, but Anderson’s Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar topped them all with his artistic style and stacked cast. This was also a first, my first Wes Anderson film - but I’m definitely hooked on his theatric style now. 


SOUND

  • THE CREATOR // Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic

  • MAESTRO // Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic

  • MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING PART ONE // Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

  • OPPENHEIMER // Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell

  • THE ZONE OF INTEREST // Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn 🟡


This is perhaps one of the most difficult categories to pay attention to in a film, and to offer recognition is even moreso. I wish I could watch whole sections of each of the nominees stripped down to just the sound design. I’d also like to learn more about the difference between sound mixing and sound editing - these were previously separate categories for the Academy Awards, but I am betting due to the public’s lack of understanding between the two, the Academy merged them to a single category. The Zone of Interest might not have been my favorite film of the year, but it’s sound design was essentially the entire reason to make this film. I knew it would win the Oscar here.


VISUAL EFFECTS

  • THE CREATOR // Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould

  • GODZILLA MINUS ONE // Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima 🟡

  • GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 // Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams, and Theo Bialek

  • MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING PART ONE // Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould

  • NAPOLEON // Charley Henley, Luc//Ewen Martin//Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould


VFX! This can be a hard one. I was so sad that I missed Napoleon and Godzilla: Minus One. However, based on what I heard about the VFX team for the latter, I guessed it would win the Oscar. Some striking effects were made for this film, but with a small budget, and a small team. With that perspective, the achievement in VFX is astounding. The Creator posed some real challenge, but I’m glad the Godzilla: Minus One team was recognized for their efforts. 


WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

  • AMERICAN FICTION // Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson

  • BARBIE // Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach 🟡

  • OPPENHEIMER // Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan 

  • POOR THINGS // Screenplay by Tony McNamara 

  • THE ZONE OF INTEREST // Written by Jonathan Glazer


So much to say about the Writing categories this year…


First, Barbie. What is it doing in the Adapted Screenplay category. Adapted from a toy? Yeah, I guess - but that’s not how this works. An Adapted Screenplay is one based on a preexisting work, like a book, play, other film, etc. Barbie was based on nothing; completely original. Barbie aside… that leaves some pretty strong contenders. However, Oppenheimer - based on the biography of the man - knocked it out of the park with it’s adaptation into the story told across the two timelines. The script is also written in the first person, the first script to have ever done so. It’s also so much longer than any of its fellow nominees. American Fiction was great, but Nolan was robbed on this one. 


WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

  • ANATOMY OF A FALL // Justine Triet and Arthur Harari 🟡

  • THE HOLDOVERS // Written by David Hemingson

  • MAESTRO // Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer 

  • MAY DECEMBER // Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik

  • PAST LIVES // Written by Celine Song


Now, back to Barbie


Gerwig deserves a nomination for her Original Screenplay. Barbie should have taken the place of May December or Past Lives. Those films are… they shouldn’t be in this list, I’ll just say that. Triet’s script for Anatomy of a Fall was indeed a huge achievement; certainly deserving of her nomination… but a win? Not in the light of Barbie… but working with the actual nominees… in the light of Maestro? Nah. Cooper and Singer brought us through the entire life of a single man. Astonishing work to develop his character and share his life with the world. 


BEST PICTURE

  • AMERICAN FICTION

// Ben Leair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson, and Jermaine Johnson

  • ANATOMY OF A FALL

// Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion

  • BARBIE

// David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner

  • THE HOLDOVERS

// Mark Johnson

  • KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

// Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi

  • MAESTRO

// Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger

  • OPPENHEIMER 🟡

// Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, and Christopher Nolan

  • PAST LIVES

// David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler

  • POOR THINGS

// Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone

  • THE ZONE OF INTEREST

// James Wilson


Society of the Snow and The Color Purple should have taken the place of The Zone of Interest and Past Lives. The former films did not receive the recognition they deserve, and the latter films received too much. Barbie earned its place, and I’m glad it wasn’t overlooked for this category. Maestro, Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, and American Fiction were all quality films, and deserve their nominees here… but again, Oppenheimer takes home the Oscar. It really was the best film of the year.


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RESULTS

15/23 CATEGORIES SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED NOMINATIONS

= 65% ACCURACY


10/23 CATEGORIES PREFERRED WINNERS 

= 43% IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ACADEMY


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What an interesting year for film! The “Barbenheimer” phenomenon took the Summer by storm. We were given some incredible films and some astounding performances across all the nominees - not just the acting categories. There were a significant number of International features nominated for other categories besides their own, which is great to see. 


I watched nearly all of the nominated films, except Napoleon, Godzilla: Minus One, The Boy and The Heron, Robot Dreams, Io Capitano, and The Teacher’s Lounge. And I had a blast. It is always a great study in film, and gets me in front of films that I would not have otherwise seen. I also saw some not so great films. I think that’s actually an important experience to have, as it gives you an example of the opposite end of the scale. Watching some bad movies gives you a well-rounded perspective of film in general. 


The best films of the year were these top five, and I cannot believe we got them all in the same year!

Oppenheimer

Society of the Snow

Barbie

The Color Purple

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Of course, Oppenheimer received plenty of nominations and most of it’s deserved wins, but Barbie and Society of the Snow did not receive the same honor. The Color Purple was entirely overlooked, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was another totally underrated animated film that needs to be taken seriously.


In light of all of this… I’ve decided to establish a new award - THE CHRISTOPHER AWARDS. I’ll nominate and honor winners in similar categories, like the Academy Awards and the Golden Globes. And we’ll see where that takes me! 


Here’s to the 2023-2024 film season!

Jordan Christopher

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